Despite the general disdain for them and the copious cancellations, live-service games still show promising financial figures that entice the most prominent companies. PlayStation, drooling over the potential financial gain, is fervently pushing for more multiplayer games. However, I predict the direction will only burden its several talented studios, resulting in a few successes and several cancellations.
Traditionally Sony has found success through its blockbuster single-player games, earning a reputation for making extremely polished story-centered experiences with highly detailed and realistic visuals. PlayStation 3 games like God of War 3 and Uncharted 2: Among Thieves revealed how cinematic games could be and pushed other developers to create cinematic set-pieces for their games. PlayStation took hold of the success and made an identity around these games. The subsequent Uncharted and God of War games, The Last of Us, Marvel’s Spider-Man, and Ghost of Tsushima cemented PlayStation as a single-player juggernaut. The multiplayer side of the equation was always lacking, but I would argue they do not even need it.
The PlayStation 4 is the 5th top-selling console of all time with 117.2 million sales, and the PlayStation 5 is outpacing its competitor, the Xbox Series X. Despite its success, PlayStation can see the analytics and the industry is moving toward live service games. In response, Sony has pushed a massive initiative to develop more live service games. A recent Sony business presentation revealed that in FY2019, Sony had 88 percent traditional (single-player) games and 12 percent live service games. But, according to their prospects, in FY2025, 60 percent of its games will be live service, drastically changing the company’s business model. Analytical projections indicate that add-on content will be the largest source of revenue for the gaming industry, which can be interpreted as paid add-ons for live services.
I do not understand why the money is pointing towards live service when all we see in headlines are failures and disappointment. Crossfire X, Rumbleverses, Knockout City, Apex Legends Mobile, and several other multiplayer games were recently canceled. In addition, Marvel’s Avengers and Ubisoft’s battle royale, Hyper Scape, were failures. The two biggest successes are Fortnite and Destiny, but it is difficult to replicate that level of success. Leaders are pushing for the next Destiny, pressuring developers to change course (possibly to something outside their expertise). The results are usually games that underperform and eventually get canceled. The live service curse can be seen in Redfall. Arkane Austin scrapped its gameplay mantras, such as simulation and improvisation, to make a safe multiplayer shooter they can support for a long time with post-launch content. Redfall was a disaster. Another game with a live service design, Gotham Knights, also failed immediately at launch. Both games probably would have performed better if the live service elements were removed and, instead, they had a single-player focus. Redfall developers would agree, according to a Bloomberg report.
Look at the PlayStation Showcase if you want to know the general attitude toward live service games. The most notable trailer, the one more thing moment, was Marvel’s Spider-Man 2, a single-player game. We also saw the announcements of several multiplayer games at the showcase, including Fairgames from Haven Studios, and Concord from Firewalk Studios. Both were not standouts, because Sony has built an identity around single-player games – that is why people come to PlayStation. To be fair, both of these game trailers did not have any gameplay, which could play into the lack of fanfare. However, I’m convinced that if they did show gameplay, then Spider-Man 2 would still be the highlight. There is just too much bad blood around live service games, and until a game proves successful, it will leave a bad taste in your mouth.
The question now is if Sony can do what few have done and create a widely successful live service game that matches or surpasses the likes of Destiny. So far, it is not looking too good.
It was a huge shock when The Last of Us Factions was not at the most recent PlayStation Showcase. For those who do not know, factions would be the multiplayer mode that launched with The Last of Us Part 2 but expanded into a full standalone game. Since 2020, it has been a no-show besides a few pieces of concept art. With the PlayStation Showcase working as PlayStation’s version of an E3 presentation, it seemed likely that Factions would make its triumphant appearance. There was nothing from it and nothing from Naughty Dog.
A few days after the showcase, Naughty Dog announced that Factions needs more time in development and then tried to share the good news: that they are working on a new single-player game. Later that day, Bloomberg unveiled the curtain. Some developers from Bungie, who is behind Destiny, were invited to evaluate Factions in its current state, and they had some feedback primarily centered around the game’s lack of longevity. After the feedback, Naughty Dog scaled back the project and removed some developers. It is not looking too good for Factions, and I would not be surprised if it gets canceled. Faction’s dire state is not surprising since Naughty Dog is primarily a single-player company. People with a particular skill set are forced to make a game outside of their skill set. Unfortunately, that is how I generally feel about PlayStation live service games.
Guerilla Games is making a multiplayer game based on Horizon. I am not sure if the developers from the Killzone era still work there, but, the truth is, the current Guerilla is a single-player company. Horizon, even if a multiplayer game could be good, is designed for a single-player experience. I fear developers have no choice but to make live service games, either leaving their single-player games behind or overstressing teams with too many projects. If any other traditionally single-player studios are making multiplayer games, I suspect, unfortunately, that they will follow the same downward spiral as Factions.
Sony’s one hope is Bungie. Acquiring the studio and having them provide support for the live service venture is a smart move. It is a studio filled with people who know how to make multiplayer games. Their feedback may be the key to PlayStation’s success. However, the live service experiment, based on the information we have about Factions, may take longer than we want. As with anything new, it will require a lot of trial and error, which in reality means a lot of frustrated devs and frustrated players. I fear that as PlayStation continues to push live service games, we will continue to see delay upon delay as developers try to wrap their heads around the seemingly impossible task of creating a game with an infinite lifespan.
While I am not optimistic about PlayStation’s live service future, I do understand the push. You can’t rely on blockbuster single-player games to carry a company forever, and live service is where the industry is going overall. I hope we get at least one standout game from this push that does not get canceled, but I do not foresee a staggering success. There will probably be more delays and disappointed fans than genuine successes.
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